The active tropical cyclone season of 2005–2006 over Northwest Australia: Operational model performance and high resolution case studies

Abstract

There are three main aims of this study. First, the main features of the active 2005–2006 Australian region tropical cyclone (TC) season are summarized, with particular emphasis on the northwest Australian region. Second, an assessment is made of the skill of the available operational global and regional numerical weather prediction (NWP) models for three of the most significant TCs (TCs Clare, Glenda and Hubert), each of which made landfall on the northwest coast of Australia. Third, high-resolution numerical modelling simulations of these same three TCs are described in detail. The numerical weather prediction (NWP) model used here was developed at the University of Oklahoma, and in this study it utilises initial and boundary conditions obtained from archived analyses and forecasts provided by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, as well as a 4D-Var data assimilation scheme to ingest all available satellite data. The high-resolution numerical model is multiply two-way nested, with the innermost domain having a resolution of 5 km. It was found that unlike the operational models, which were restricted by relatively low resolution and less data, the high resolution model was able to capture most of the major features of all three TC lifecycles including development from initial tropical depressions, intensification, and their tracks, landfall, and associated rainfall and wind fields.