The accuracy of the Transition Analysis of aging on a heterogenic South African population

Abstract

Transition Analysis (TA) is an age estimation method for adult skeletons at death, using three skeletal traits together, namely, the cranial sutures (CS), the pubic symphyses (PS) and the auricular surfaces (AS). In forensic anthropology, estimating age at death is vital for positive identification of an individual; however, differences in skeletal elements have been observed between sex and population affinity. The aim of this study was to determine how accurately the TA could be applied to a population that differed from the original reference samples.Scoring methods, described by the authors of this analysis, were used to age individuals (n = 290) in the South African (SA) Mixed Ancestry population, which is a heterogenic population, consisting of many gene pools from different population groups. The results were compared to the actual ages of the skeletal remains, obtained through cadaver records, and the most likely age calculated by the TA, as well as age estimation by means of the three skeletal elements individually.Results showed that there was a significant correlation between the actual and estimated ages of the study population (Pearson correlation coefficient: 0.58). The AS was the most accurate trait, whereas the PS was the least accurate trait. In addition, females’ estimated ages were more accurate than males. These findings correlated with other authors in terms of the significance of the TA when applied to different populations; however, the individual trait correlations were in disagreement with other authors. The results of this study are an important contribution to anthropological literature as they indicate that there are differences between populations and sex when determining age, but that the TA is still applicable for analysis on this heterogenic population.