The Accuracy of Professional Forecasts and Monetary Policy in South Africa

Abstract

This paper analyses the accuracy of professional forecasts of monetary policy interest rate decisions in South Africa since 2008. This is achieved by examining the dissimilarity between the professional forecasts of monetary policy stance and the realised monetary policy interest rate on the basis of proximity, temporal structure and sensitivity to forecast horizon. The results show that the forecasts of South African insurance companies and international banks are closest to the realised monetary policy interest rate on average based on proximity, while the forecasts of South African banks and interest groups are closest to the realised monetary policy interest rate based on temporal structure. The results finally show deterioration of the professional forecasts the further away the forecast horizon and that the heterogeneity in forecast accuracy neither emanates from the country of primary listing nor primary business of the professional forecasts groups.