Abstract
The economic logic of using models of transportation demand based upon non-spatial estimating methods is questioned. The accuracy of the most common non-spatial technique for estimating the demand for transport is assessed by simulating transportation networks. Two simulations are offered: in the first, transportation costs are assumed to act as a tariff between single producing and consuming regions. In the second, producers and consumers are spatially dispersed and connected by a public and private mode of transportation. The relationship between transport prices and equilibrium traffic levels is computed for different structural determinants in each of the two problems. The resulting data are then analyzed using the traditional technique and the results compared with the true transportation demand elasticities. Estimates based on the non-spatial method are shown to be deceptively reasonable, but are inversely correlated with true demand elasticities in the first example and uncorrected with the truth in the second example.
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