The accuracy of German citizens’ confidence in their climate change knowledge

Abstract

Accurate confidence—confidence that reflects the accuracy of knowledge—can be relevant for decision-making in areas of high uncertainty. Accuracy of confidence is of particular importance in the area of climate change where scientifically correct information exists alongside misinformation in the public discourse and media. Here we assess the accuracy of confidence in climate change knowledge in a national German sample (n = 509). The accuracy of the confidence of the citizens in their climate change knowledge was only around half of what it could be based on the accuracy of their knowledge. Moreover, the accuracy of confidence controlling for knowledge accuracy was lower for climate change than for two benchmark comparisons: general science knowledge in another national German sample (n = 588), and climate change knowledge in a scientist sample (n = 207). Although these results cannot necessarily be generalized to the population of all indicators of climate change knowledge, the results suggest that the confidence of citizens in their climate change knowledge is unnecessarily fuzzy given their actual knowledge. Whether citizens are able to reject false information about climate change may depend on their confidence in their existing knowledge. This study shows that German citizens are less confident in their climate change knowledge than they should be based on their actual knowledge.