The accuracy and informativeness of agricultural baselines

Abstract

AbstractAgricultural baselines facilitate policy and investment decisions by governments and market participants by providing long‐term projections about the farm sector. Despite their importance in shaping agricultural policy, the agricultural baselines have not been rigorously evaluated. This study evaluates the accuracy and informativeness of two widely used baselines for the US farm sector published by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) in three steps. First, we examine the average percent errors of the projections and perform tests of bias. Second, we use a testing framework based on the encompassing principle to test the predictive content of the projections for each horizon, determining the longest informative projection horizon. Third, we compare the USDA and FAPRI baseline projections using a multi‐horizon framework that considers all projection horizons jointly. We find that prediction error and bias increase with the horizon's length. The predictive content of the baselines projections for most variables diminishes after 4–5 years. The multi‐horizon comparison suggests that neither USDA nor FAPRI projections have uniform or average superior predictive ability over the other for most variables. Our findings are useful for the agencies producing these baselines and for the policymakers, agricultural businesses, and other stakeholders who use them. The study contributes to the recent literature on long‐term agricultural projections and establishes the groundwork for future research inquiries.