The accruals anomaly – can implementable portfolio strategies be developed that are profitable net of transactions costs in the UK?

Abstract

In this paper, we provide evidence related to the existence, or otherwise, of the accruals anomaly in the UK stock market. Specifically, we find that average annual abnormal returns generally decline as prior period accruals move from low to high. This outcome can be interpreted as broadly consistent with the accruals anomaly via which investors overweight the persistence of accruals and underweight the persistence of cash flows in predicting next period's earnings. Our results suggest that to make money out of any mispricing based upon ranking firms by accruals generally requires a portfolio strategy with long and, in particular, short positions in portfolios featuring relatively small capitalisation firms. When taking into account conservative estimates of trading costs, the investment strategy is seen to generate losses if an initially equally‐weighted investment approach is used or positive, but not statistically significant, abnormal returns if a value‐weighted approach is followed. Overall, we conclude that, whilst there is evidence of mispricing consistent with the accruals anomaly, the profitable exploitation of the anomaly is not necessarily possible when transactions costs are taken into account. Thus, the accruals anomaly is not so egregious in the UK as to challenge the semi‐strong version efficient markets hypothesis.