THE ACADEMIC FLOW MODEL: A MARKOV‐CHAIN MODEL FOR FACULTY PLANNING*

Abstract

A Markov‐chain faculty planning model to be used with institution‐specific data is presented to describe and better understand the complex phenomena of faculty movement through an institution and on its relationship to salary costs, composition of the faculty, and faculty turnover rate. The model updates the earlier work done at Stanford University and Oregon State University by the addition of states for fixed‐term appointments and for part‐time FTEs to reflect accurately the current hiring trends at many institutions. The model is implemented and tested at two different institutions. The findings suggest that the model is a viable means of gaining useful insights and quantitative data on the faculty profile, salary costs, expected departures, and part‐time trends. And further, when used as a planning tool, and the model apparently is comprehensive and flexible enough to analyze the probable effects, both in the short and long run, of alternative personnel policies on the faculty composition.