The ability of the logistic EuroSCORE to predict long-term outcomes after coronary artery bypass graft surgery.

Abstract

The European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) predicts in-hospital mortality for patients undergoing cardiac surgery. Many variables associated with increased surgical mortality persist postoperatively. The aim of this study was to investigate the predictive value of the logistic EuroSCORE to long-term survival after coronary artery bypass surgery. Data were collected retrospectively for all patients undergoing coronary artery bypass graft(CABG) at a single center between January 1, 2009and December 31, 2009. Data submitted to NICOR were used for EuroSCORE and in-hospital outcomes; longer-term, all-cause mortality from NHS digital Personal Demographic Service. Low (<3), intermediate (3-6), and high-risk (>6) logistic EuroSCORE groups were identified and analyzed using the appropriate statistical methodology, with p valuesless than .05 being taken as significant. Six hundred and sixty-three patients underwent isolated CABG procedures during the study. The 1-, 3-, 5-,and 10-year survival rates were 97.6%, 94.3%, 89.3%, and 73.5%, respectively. Comparing survival outcomes between low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups showed that the logistic EuroSCORE was able to predict long-term outcomes (p < .05). In addition, poor left ventricular ejection fraction, serum creatinine above 200 ml, chronic pulmonary disease, extracardiac arteriopathy, and pulmonary hypertension were identified as independent predictors of long-term mortality. Our study demonstrates the logistic EuroSCORE predicted long-term outcomes following CABG surgery. This finding can inform patients of the long-term risks of CABG surgery and guide MDT decision-making.