The Abdominal Adiposity Index (A Body Shape Index) Predicts 10-Year All-Cause Mortality in Elderly Active Non-Obese Subjects

Abstract

Background/Objectives: A Body Shape Index (ABSI), which accounts for waist circumference relative to mass and height, shows a robust association with mortality risk. The present study evaluates the effectiveness of ABSI as a predictor of 10-year all-cause mortality in physically active, non-obese elderly individuals. Methods: This prospective cohort study included 159 volunteers (94 women, aged 60–80 years), recruited in the frame of the “Physical Activity and Nutrition for Great Ageing” (PANGeA) Cross-border Cooperation Program Slovenia–Italy 2007–2013, and followed for 10 years. Baseline characteristics included anthropometric measurements, bioelectrical impedance analysis, and cardiovascular fitness tests (VO2max). Statistical analyses (Cox regression, Kaplan–Meier survival) were conducted to examine the relationship between ABSI and mortality. Results: During the 10-year follow-up, 10 deaths (6.7%) were recorded. ABSI (adjusted for age, smoking, comorbidities, and therapy) was an independent predictor of mortality (hazard ratio = 4.65, p < 0.001). Higher ABSI scores were linked to reduced VO2max (r = −0.190, p = 0.017) and increased systolic blood pressure (r = 0.262, p = 0.001). An ABSI-based predictive model showed strong discriminatory power (AUROC = 0.91). Conclusions: ABSI is a reliable predictor of 10-year mortality in active, non-obese elderly individuals and may improve risk stratification in clinical practice.