The 90-Day Survival Threshold: A Pivotal Determinant of Long-Term Prognosis in HBV-ACLF Patients - Insights from a Prospective Longitudinal Cohort Study.

Abstract

This work aims to explore the long-term prognosis of hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF). In this prospective study, eligible inpatients with HBV-ACLF are enrolled and followed up from December 2012 to February 2023, for clinical events, laboratory tests at least every 6 months. Overall, the survival rates at 28 days, 90 days, 1 year, 5 years, and 8 years are 64.7%, 48.8%, 46.1%, 43.8%, and 42.2%, respectively. Among the 8-year mortality and liver transplant cases, ACLF survivors (who survived over 90 days) accounted for 7.8% (9/115). Among 101 patients who survived for more than 90 days, 97.9% of patients achieve virologic response at 1 year. For HBeAg-positive patients, the HBeAg seroconversion are 25.5%, 63.6%, and 76.9% at 1, 5, and 8 years, respectively. Alanine aminotransferase, aspartate aminotransferase, total bilirubin, INR, white blood cell count, and albumin levels gradually improve within the first year. Fibrosis biomarkers APRI, FIB-4 and Chitinase-3-like protein 1 (CHI3L1) levels decreases within the first 5 years. The Cox proportional hazards regression reveal that high total bilirubin (HR = 1.008, p = 0.021) is the independent risk factor for 8-year survival of ALCF survivors. The 90-day period following of HBV-ACLF represented a critical juncture for long-term prognosis, revealing favorable outcomes beyond this timeframe.