The 28-year incidence of de novo malignancies after liver transplantation: A single-center analysis of risk factors and mortality in 1616 patients.

Abstract

De novo malignancies (DNMs) are one of the leading causes of late mortality after liver transplantation (LT). We analyzed 1616 consecutive patients who underwent LT between 1988 and 2006 at our institution. All patients were prospectively observed over a study period of 28 years by our own outpatient clinic. Complete follow-up data were available for 96% of patients, 3% were incomplete, and only 1% were lost to follow-up. The median follow-up of the patients was 14.1 years. Variables with possible prognostic impact on the development of DNMs were analyzed, as was the incidence of malignancies compared with the nontransplant population by using standardized incidence ratios. In total, 266 (16.5%) patients developed 322 DNMs of the following subgroups: hematological malignancies (n = 49), skin cancer (n = 83), and nonskin solid organ tumors (SOT; n = 190). The probability of developing any DNM within 10 and 25 years was 12.9% and 23.0%, respectively. The respective probability of developing SOT was 7.8% and 16.2%. Mean age at time of diagnosis of SOT was 57.4 years (range, 18.3-81.1 years). In the multivariate analysis, an increased recipient age (hazard ratio [HR], 1.03; P < 0.001) and a history of smoking (HR, 1.92; P < 0.001) were significantly associated with development of SOT. Moreover, the development of SOT was significantly increased in cyclosporine A-treated compared with tacrolimus-treated patients (HR, 1.53; P = 0.03). The present analysis shows a disproportionate increase of de novo SOT with an increasing follow-up period. Increased age and a history of smoking are confirmed as major risk factors. Moreover, the importance of immunosuppression is highlighted. Liver Transplantation 23 1404-1414 2017 AASLD.