The 27–year decline of coral cover on the Great Barrier Reef and its causes

Coral reef ecosystems worldwide are under pressure from chronic and acute stressors that threaten their continued existence. Most obvious among changes to reefs is loss of hard coral cover, but a precise multi-scale estimate of coral cover dynamics for the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) is currently lacking. Monitoring data collected annually from fixed sites at 47 reefs across 1300 km of the GBR indicate that overall regional coral cover was stable (averaging 29% and ranging from 23% to 33% cover across years) with no net decline between 1995 and 2009. Subregional trends (10–100 km) in hard coral were diverse with some being very dynamic and others changing little. Coral cover increased in six subregions and decreased in seven subregions. Persistent decline of corals occurred in one subregion for hard coral and Acroporidae and in four subregions in non-Acroporidae families. Change in Acroporidae accounted for 68% of change in hard coral. Crown-of-thorns starfish (Acanthaster planci) outbreaks and storm damage were responsible for more coral loss during this period than either bleaching or disease despite two mass bleaching events and an increase in the incidence of coral disease. While the limited data for the GBR prior to the 1980's suggests that coral cover was higher than in our survey, we found no evidence of consistent, system-wide decline in coral cover since 1995. Instead, fluctuations in coral cover at subregional scales (10–100 km), driven mostly by changes in fast-growing Acroporidae, occurred as a result of localized disturbance events and subsequent recovery.

The Great Barrier Reef, like most reef ecosystems, is increasingly subject to major acute disturbances, including population irruptions of crown-of-thorns starfish (CoTS) and climate-induced coral bleaching. Given their increasing incidence, acute disturbances are likely to occur simultaneously or successively, though interactive effects of major disturbances are generally unknown. This study explores changes in the feeding behavior of CoTS during an emerging population irruption at Lizard Island that coincided with the 2024 mass bleaching, using in situ survey data. We conducted Scooter-Assisted Large Area Diver-Based surveys to investigate changes in CoTS demography and feeding, and point-intercept transects to examine changes in coral cover. From 2023 to 2025, there was a 49% decline in coral cover at Lizard Island, which was largely attributable to mass bleaching. Daily feeding rates of CoTS significantly declined over the same period, both in terms of the number of coral colonies (42.8% decline) and the combined tissue surface area of all corals consumed for each starfish (46.3% decline). CoTS density increased by 96.1% from 2023 to 2025 despite decreased feeding rates. Additionally, the relative consumption of different coral genera was consistent throughout the study period, with Acropora spp. contributing to > 80% of CoTS diet throughout the study. Though the 2024 bleaching event may have suppressed feeding rates and ecological impact of individual CoTS, the longer-term effects of CoTS are likely to conflate with coral loss due to mass bleaching, especially given sustained increases in CoTS densities.

The crown-of-thorns starfish (COTS), Acanthaster cf. solaris, is one of the main contributors to declines in coral cover on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) and remains one of the major acute disturbances on coral reefs throughout much of the Indo-Pacific. Extensive control programs on the GBR involve manual culling of COTS in the field, and research is needed to inform these management efforts. Data from the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority’s (GBRMPA) COTS control program provide near-real-time CPUE (Catch-Per-Unit-Effort, COTS culled per minute) data ideal for operational decision-making but these must be converted to density estimates before they can be related to ecological status of reefs or incorporated into ecological models. We developed conversions between common COTS field survey methods (i.e. manta tow, SCUBA transect searches) and COTS control program CPUE data using estimates of sightability and detectability. We used a population model and COTS size-structure data from COTS control program culling efforts to estimate that, on average, only 19% of 1-yr-old COTS (1–15 cm) are available to be culled. Finally, we developed a CPUE-COTS density relationship to estimate the threshold levels of COTS that prevent net growth of hard corals. Culling programs should therefore aim to achieve CPUEs below these ecological thresholds in order to effectively promote coral growth and recovery. These ecologically sustainable thresholds of COTS density varied depending on hard coral cover. For example, for 35% fast-growing coral cover, COTS culling needs to continue until CPUE decreases to below 0.05 COTS/min (1 COTS per 20 min) in order to prevent coral decline, whereas if coral cover is higher (80%), then a higher target threshold CPUE of ca. 0.08 COTS/min (ca. 3 COTS per 40 min) may be ecologically sustainable. These estimates underpin the current pest management rules being implemented by the GBRMPA in its COTS control program.

There has been substantial recent change in coral reef communities. To date, most analyses have focussed on static patterns or changes in single variables such as coral cover. However, little is known about how community-level changes occur at large spatial scales. Here, we develop Markov models of annual changes in coral and macroalgal cover in the Caribbean and Great Barrier Reef (GBR) regions. We analyzed reef surveys from the Caribbean and GBR (1996–2006). We defined a set of reef states distinguished by coral and macroalgal cover, and obtained Bayesian estimates of the annual probabilities of transitions between these states. The Caribbean and GBR had different transition probabilities, and therefore different rates of change in reef condition. This could be due to differences in species composition, management or the nature and extent of disturbances between these regions. We then estimated equilibrium probability distributions for reef states, and coral and macroalgal cover under constant environmental conditions. In both regions, the current distributions are close to equilibrium. In the Caribbean, coral cover is much lower and macroalgal cover is higher at equilibrium than in the GBR. We found no evidence for differences in transition probabilities between the first and second halves of our survey period, or between Caribbean reefs inside and outside marine protected areas. However, our power to detect such differences may have been low. We also examined the effects of altering transition probabilities on the community state equilibrium, along a continuum from unfavourable (e.g., increased sea surface temperature) to favourable (e.g., improved management) conditions. Both regions showed similar qualitative responses, but different patterns of uncertainty. In the Caribbean, uncertainty was greatest about effects of favourable changes, while in the GBR, we are most uncertain about effects of unfavourable changes. Our approach could be extended to provide risk analysis for management decisions.

Coral reefs are marine biodiversity hotspots, but their existence is threatened by global change and local pressures such as land-runoff and overfishing. Population explosions of coral-eating crown of thorns sea stars (COTS) are a major contributor to recent decline in coral cover on the Great Barrier Reef. Here, we investigate how projected near-future ocean acidification (OA) conditions can affect early life history stages of COTS, by investigating important milestones including sperm motility, fertilisation rates, and larval development and settlement. OA (increased pCO2 to 900–1200 µatm pCO2) significantly reduced sperm motility and, to a lesser extent, velocity, which strongly reduced fertilization rates at environmentally relevant sperm concentrations. Normal development of 10 d old larvae was significantly lower under elevated pCO2 but larval size was not significantly different between treatments. Settlement of COTS larvae was significantly reduced on crustose coralline algae (known settlement inducers of COTS) that had been exposed to OA conditions for 85 d prior to settlement assays. Effect size analyses illustrated that reduced settlement may be the largest bottleneck for overall juvenile production. Results indicate that reductions in fertilisation and settlement success alone would reduce COTS population replenishment by over 50%. However, it is unlikely that this effect is sufficient to provide respite for corals from other negative anthropogenic impacts and direct stress from OA and warming on corals.

The decline of corals on tropical reefs is usually ascribed to a combination of natural and anthropogenic factors, but the relative importance of these causes remains unclear. In this paper, we attempt to quantify the contribution of hurricanes to Caribbean coral cover decline over the past two decades using meta-analyses. Our study included published and unpublished data from 286 coral reef sites monitored for variable lengths of time between 1980 and 2001. Of these, 177 sites had experienced hurricane impacts during their period of survey. Across the Caribbean, coral cover is reduced by ∼17%, on average, in the year following a hurricane impact. The magnitude of this immediate loss increases with hurricane intensity and with the time elapsed since the last impact. In the following year, no further loss is discernible, but the decline in cover then resumes on impacted sites at a rate similar to the regional background rate of decline for nonimpacted sites. There is no evidence of recovery to a pre-storm state for at least eight years after impact. Overall, coral cover at sites impacted by a hurricane has declined at a significantly faster rate (6% per annum) than nonimpacted sites (2% per annum), due almost exclusively to higher rates of loss in the year after impact in the 1980s. While hurricanes, through their immediate impacts, appear to have contributed to changing coral cover on many Caribbean reefs in the 1980s, the similar decline in coral cover at impacted and nonimpacted sites in the 1990s suggests that other stressors are now relatively more important in driving the overall pattern of change in coral cover in this region. The overall lack of post-hurricane recovery points to a general impairment of the regeneration potential of Caribbean coral reefs.

Near-shore marine environments are increasingly subjected to reduced water quality, and their ability to withstand it is critical to their persistence. The potential role marine reserves may play in mitigating the effects of reduced water quality has received little attention. We investigated the spatial and temporal variability in live coral and macro-algal cover and water quality during moderate and major flooding events of the Fitzroy River within the Keppel Bay region of the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park from 2007 to 2013. We used 7 years of remote sensing data on water quality and data from long-term monitoring of coral reefs to quantify exposure of coral reefs to flood plumes. We used a distance linear model to partition the contribution of abiotic and biotic factors, including zoning, as drivers of the observed changes in coral and macro-algae cover. Moderate flood plumes from 2007 to 2009 did not affect coral cover on reefs in the Keppel Islands, suggesting the reef has intrinsic resistance against short-term exposure to reduced water quality. However, from 2009 to 2013, live coral cover declined by ∼ 50% following several weeks of exposure to turbid, low salinity water from major flood plume events in 2011 and subsequent moderate events in 2012 and 2013. Although the flooding events in 2012 and 2013 were smaller than the flooding events between 2007 to 2009, the ability of the reefs to withstand these moderate floods was lost, as evidenced by a ∼ 20% decline in coral cover between 2011 to 2013. Although zoning (no-take reserve or fished) was identified a significant driver of coral cover, we recorded consistently lower coral cover on reserve reefs than on fished reefs throughout the study period and significantly lower cover in 2011. Our findings suggest that even reefs with an inherent resistance to reduced water quality are not able to withstand repeated disturbance events. The limitations of reserves in mitigating the effects of reduced water quality on near-shore coral reefs underscores the importance of integrated management approaches that combine effective land-based management with networks of no-take reserves.

Manta tow surveys of the perimeters of reefs throughout the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) assessed broad-scale changes in hard coral cover on reefs impacted by, recovering from and unaffected by Acanthaster planci outbreaks. Mean coral cover was 16 to 40 % on reefs with no history of A. planci outbreaks, depending on location on the GBR. Coral cover increased at approximately 2% yr -1 on southern reefs, while there was no significant increase on such reefs in other regions. Hard coral cover on reefs with A. planci outbreaks declined at a mean annual rate of 6 % to an average level of 9%. Coral cover on southern reefs that were recovering from sustained A. planci outbreaks increased at about 4% yr -1 while such reefs showed an annual increase of 0.8% in the remaining regions. A total of 78% of recovering reefs showed a positive growth rate, assuming linear growth, the time for coral cover to increase by 30%, was estimated at between 5 yr and well over 1000 yr. In addition to providing regional estimates of the decline and recovery of reefs due to A. planci outbreaks, this study highlights the variability in rate of recovery between reefs and raises the possibility that not all reefs will recover from sustained outbreaks.

Resilience-based management is essential to protect ecosystems in the Anthropocene. Unlike large-scale climate threats to Great Barrier Reef (GBR) corals, outbreaks of coral-eating crown-of-thorns starfish (COTS; Acanthaster cf. solaris) can be directly managed through targeted culling. Here, we evaluate the outcomes of a decade of strategic COTS management in suppressing outbreaks and protecting corals during the 4th COTS outbreak wave at reef and regional scales (sectors). We compare COTS density and coral cover dynamics during the 3rd and 4th outbreak waves. During the 4th outbreak wave, sectors that received limited to no culling had sustained COTS outbreaks causing significant coral losses. In contrast, in sectors that received timely and sufficient cull effort, coral cover increased substantially, and outbreaks were suppressed with COTS densities up to six-fold lower than in the 3rd outbreak wave. In the Townsville sector for example, despite exposure to comparable disturbance regimes during the 4th outbreak wave, effective outbreak suppression coincided with relative increases in sector-wide coral cover (44%), versus significant coral cover declines (37%) during the 3rd outbreak wave. Importantly, these estimated increases span entire sectors, not just reefs with active COTS control. Outbreaking reefs with higher levels of culling had net increases in coral cover, while the rate of coral loss was more than halved on reefs with lower levels of cull effort. Our results also indicate that outbreak wave progression to adjoining sectors has been delayed, probably via suppression of COTS larval supply. Our findings provide compelling evidence that proactive, targeted, and sustained COTS management can effectively suppress COTS outbreaks and deliver coral growth and recovery benefits at reef and sector-wide scales. The clear coral protection outcomes demonstrate the value of targeted manual culling as both a scalable intervention to mitigate COTS outbreaks, and a potent resilience-based management tool to "buy time" for coral reefs, protecting reef ecosystem functions and biodiversity as the climate changes.

Coral reefs are degrading through the impacts of multiple anthropogenic stressors. How are coral reef communities going to change and how to protect them for future generations are important conservation questions. Using coral reef data from Mauritius, we examined changes in cover in 23 benthic groups for a 13-yr period and at 15 sites. Moreover, we determined which land-based stressor out of four (human population, agriculture, tourism, rainfall) correlated the most with the observed changes in coral reef cover. Among the stony corals, Acropora corals appeared to be the most impacted, decreasing in cover at many sites. However, the non-Acropora encrusting group increased in cover at several sites. The increase in abundance of dead corals and rubble at some sites also supported the observations of stony coral decline during the study period. Additionally, the decline in stony corals appeared to be more pronounced in second half of the study period for all sites suggesting that a global factor rather than a local factor was responsible for this decline. There was little change in cover for the other benthic groups, some of which were quite rare. Human population was significantly correlated with changes in coral reef cover for 11 sites, followed by tourism and agriculture. Rainfall, a proxy for runoff, did not appear to affect coral reef cover. Overall, our results showed that there has been a decline of stony coral cover especially the ones with complex morphologies, which in turn suggest that coral reefs around Mauritius have experienced a decline in habitat complexity during the study period. Our study also suggests that humans are an important factor contributing to the demise of coral reefs around the island.

To monitor any impacts to coral reefs related to the exponential growth of tourism in the South Sinai region of the Egyptian Red Sea, nine stations were established at key reef sites over 2002–2003. At each station coral cover was determined using a video survey method at depths of 3, 7 and 16 m, and fish abundance by underwater visual census at depths of 3 and 10 m. Mean total coral cover (hard plus soft) ranged from 58% to 23% at 3 m, 50% to 14% at 7 m, and 52% to 13% at 16 m, and hard coral cover from 37.5% to 15.7% at 3 m, 32.8% to 7.0% at 7 m, and 17.8% to 2.2% at 16 m. Analyses confirmed differences in coral assemblage related to depth and wave exposure. Fish abundances and assemblages also varied with depth and proximity of deep water. Also the one site subject to fishing had lower abundances of some commercial fish families and greater abundances of some herbivores. Transects subject to greater tourist use did not segregate from those subject to less tourist use, despite evidence from other work of an effect from visitor damage to corals at some sites. This may be because visitors were more attracted to sites that had higher coral cover. Comparison of the present data with that from past studies is difficult because of the differences in sites and method employed, but several observations suggest a moderate decline in coral cover during recent decades. Such a decline would be compatible with the recorded impact of an outbreak of crown‐of‐thorns starfish, Acanthaster planci, as well as with other evidence of accumulating damage by visitors. Further monitoring using the same stations and consistent protocols is urgently required. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Near-reef and nearshore tropical cyclone wave climate in the Great Barrier Reef with and without reef structure

MEPS Marine Ecology Progress Series Contact the journal Facebook Twitter RSS Mailing List Subscribe to our mailing list via Mailchimp HomeLatest VolumeAbout the JournalEditorsTheme Sections MEPS 402:115-122 (2010) - DOI: https://doi.org/10.3354/meps08438 Regional spatio-temporal trends in Caribbean coral reef benthic communities Virginia G. W. Schutte1,3,*, Elizabeth R. Selig1,2,4, John F. Bruno1 1Department of Marine Sciences, The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, 340 Chapman Hall CB# 3300, Chapel Hill, North Carolina 27599-3300, USA 2Curriculum for the Environment and Ecology, 207 Coastes Building CB# 3275, The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina 27599-3275, USA 3Present address: Odum School of Ecology, The University of Georgia, 140 E. Green St., Athens, Georgia 30602-2202, USA 4Present address: Center for Applied Biodiversity Science, Conservation International, 2011 Crystal Drive, Suite 500, Arlington, Virginia 22202, USA *Email: vschutte@uga.edu ABSTRACT: Coral cover has declined on reefs worldwide with particularly acute losses in the Caribbean. Despite our awareness of the broad-scale patterns and timing of Caribbean coral loss, there is little published information on: (1) finer-scale, subregional patterns over the last 35 yr, (2) regional-scale trends since 2001, and (3) macroalgal cover changes. We analyzed the spatio-temporal trends of benthic coral reef communities in the Caribbean using quantitative data from 3777 coral cover surveys of 1962 reefs from 1971 to 2006 and 2247 macroalgal cover surveys of 875 reefs from 1977 to 2006. A subset of 376 reefs was surveyed more than once (monitored). The largest 1 yr decline in coral cover occurred from 1980 to 1981, corresponding with the beginning of the Caribbean-wide Acropora spp. white band disease outbreak. Our results suggest that, regionally, coral cover has been relatively stable since this event (i.e. from 1982 to 2006). The largest increase in macroalgal cover was in 1986, 3 yr after the regional die-off of the urchin grazer Diadema antillarum began. Subsequently, macroalgal cover declined in 1987 and has been stable since then. Regional mean (±1 SE) macroalgal cover from 2001 to 2005 was 15.3 ± 0.4% (n = 1821 surveys). Caribbean-wide mean (±1 SE) coral cover was 16.0 ± 0.4% (n = 1547) for this same time period. Both macroalgal and coral cover varied significantly among subregions from 2001 to 2005, with the lowest coral cover in the Florida Keys and the highest coral cover in the Gulf of Mexico. Spatio-temporal patterns from the subset of monitored reefs are concordant with the conclusions drawn from the entire database. Our results suggest that coral and macroalgal cover on Caribbean reef benthic communities has changed relatively little since the mid-1980s. KEY WORDS: Coral cover · Macroalgae · Coral disease · Coral bleaching Full text in pdf format Supplementary material PreviousNextCite this article as: Schutte VGW, Selig ER, Bruno JF (2010) Regional spatio-temporal trends in Caribbean coral reef benthic communities. Mar Ecol Prog Ser 402:115-122. https://doi.org/10.3354/meps08438Export citation RSS - Facebook - Tweet - linkedIn Cited by Published in MEPS Vol. 402. Online publication date: March 08, 2010 Print ISSN: 0171-8630; Online ISSN: 1616-1599 Copyright © 2010 Inter-Research.

The decline of coral cover on Australia's Great Barrier Reef (GBR) has largely been attributed to the cumulative pressures of tropical cyclones, temperature-induced coral bleaching, and predation by crown-of-thorns starfish (CoTS). In such a complex system, the effectiveness of any management intervention will become apparent only over decadal time scales. Systems modeling approaches are therefore essential to formulating and testing alternative management strategies. For a network of reefs, we developed a metacommunity model that incorporated the cumulative pressures of tropical cyclones, coral bleaching, predation, and competition between corals. We then tested the response of coral cover to management interventions including catchment restoration to reduce discharge onto the reef during cyclone-induced flood events and enhanced protection of trophic networks supporting predation of CoTS. Model results showed good agreement with long-term monitoring of the GBR, including cyclical outbreaks of CoTS driven by predator-prey dynamics on the network of reefs. Testing of intervention strategies showed that catchment restoration would likely improve coral cover. However, strategies that combined catchment restoration with enhanced CoTS predation were far more effective than catchment restoration alone.

At Tanguisson Reef, Guam, in 1968-1969 a population explosion of the coral-eating sea star Acanthaster planci devastated the coral community. In the wake of this predation, coral species richness, density, and cover were drastically reduced, and the species composition was altered. In two of three reef zones examined, < 1% coral cover remained. At the time of disturbance, some considered the magnitude of this and similar Acanthaster disturbances unprecedented, and predicted long recovery times because reefs were viewed as mature, stable communities. This major disturbance offered an opportunity to study the processes and rate of community recovery. Using the data from previous studies in 1970, 1971, and 1974, and my data from 1980-1981, I present a long-term analysis of coral community development. I have focused on coral recruitment, survivorship, and species settlement patterns in relationship to the remnant surviving population. The preference of Acanthaster planci for certain prey (e.g., Montipora and Acropora) shifted the species composition to one in which nonpreferred prey predominated (e.g., Porites and Leptastrea). The predominance of nonpreferred prey was short-lived, and by 1980, preferred prey were the primary colonists of two zones. The three biological zones (reef front, submarine terrace, and seaward slope) had their own characteristic species assemblages soon after the disturbance. Nonrandom recruitment or survival of juvenile corals (diameter ≤ 4 cm) established these zones. Although the percentage of juvenile corals fell throughout the survey, their highest density was reached after adult colonies were established. In 1980, of the 34 species examined, 79% showed a significant coefficient of association between adult and juvenile conspecifics. This association caused clumped species dispersion patterns to develop within zones. As the result of recruitment, species diversity rose from 84 species in 1970 to 154 species in 1981. As surviving corals and new recruits developed, the distribution of coral growth forms became more diversified. There was a drastic increase in coral cover (e.g., submarine terrace zone, 0.9% in 1970 to 65% in 1981). This increase in cover corresponded to an increase in size and number of the coral colonies In 12 yr, species richness, cover, and composition reached or exceeded measurements of comparable reefs before the disturbance. The recovery occurred faster than predicted by a stable equilibrium model because long-term successional changes were not required. Recovery was accelerated because Acanthaster did not destroy the structural integrity of reef framework. This rapid recovery from a natural disturbance demonstrates that some coral communities have a greater resilience than was once believed.