Abstract
Macro-analysis and East-West encounter are shown through consideration of objective yet subjective constructed concepts for the international system and international economy in the 21st century. Three paradigms are considered, namely the 21st century as the Pacific Century, as Chinas Century and as the Asian Century. Overlaps are shown between these three paradigms, as also developments in time, and gradually shift in geographical location. The Pacific Century, and its associated Rimspeak, was the paradigm emerging in the late 1970s, knitting together Americas West Coast and the Japanese economy. By the late 1980s this was already shifting to talk of the 21st century likely to be an Asian Century model, mark-1, based on the Pacific Asia dynamism shown by the Asian Tigers and Japan. However, the Asian financial crash of 1997-8, and the economic downturn in Japan, meant that such an Asian Century seemed premature as the 21st century arrived. Instead, it was Chinas economic growth that seemed most evident, and with it the concept of the 21st century as Chinas Century. However, in turn that has already been modified during the first decade of the century by Indias arrival as a rapidly growing economy. Consequently the 21st century as Chinas Century and as Indias Century has been combined into talk of an Asian Century, mark-2.
Highlights
Macro-analysis and East-West encounter is back in international relations, as the furore over Huntington’s Clash of Civilizations (1997) showed. This is an “age of new paradigms” (Wang Gungwu 2004) for the international system. Three such paradigms can be seen for the 21st century, namely talk it being The Pacific Century, The China Century and The Asian Century - the subject of this study
Campbell may have felt “it's time for us to take full advantage of the Pacific opportunity that is there for Canada as we look at this Pacific century that is on our doorstep,” that “it’s the Pacific opportunity
In effect Wang acknowledged Goldstein’s transition strategy model for the 21st century, that “this buildup period is expected to last for twenty years” (25), which “will be used by China to serve its grand strategy of peaceful rise...to grasp the 20 year period of opportunity, winning time at the cost of...a degree of [shortterm] concession” (25)
Summary
In “imaging the Pacific” (Smith 1992), the ‘Pacific Century’ has been frequently evoked and envisaged for over 150 years, and has given rise to memorable and evocative assertions (Korhonen 1996). Reagan set a Presidential lead, pointing Alaskans to “an economic community on the Pacific rim which will be ever more important to our way of life in the years ahead...as the potential of the Pacific unfolds” (1983a) His future expectations were high, that “the strong economic growth that is expected through the century will give the Pacific region increasing significance and influence” (1987). Whilst Reagan had mused on the coming of a Pacific community, such a wider Pacific state setting had been brokered by Australia and Japan, with American support, whose suggestions led to formation in 1989 of the 12-nation Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation APEC group, i.e. the six ASEAN countries together with Australia and New Zealand, Canada and the USA, South Korea and Japan. Another paradigm had become prominent, the 21st century as ‘China’s Century’
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