Abstract
A common narrative is that COVID-19 cost Trump re-election. But, we do not find supporting evidence. Rather, our results highlight the political salience of the trade war and health insurance coverage in the 2020 US Presidential election. US trade war tariffs boosted Trump’s support and foreign retaliation hurt Trump. In particular, the pro-Trump effects of US trade war tariffs were crucial for Trump getting inside the recount thresholds in Georgia and Wisconsin. Even more important politically, voters abandoned Trump in counties with large increases in health insurance coverage since the Affordable Care Act, presumably fearing the roll-back of such expansion. Absent this anti-Trump effect, Trump would have been on the precipice of re-election by winning Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, and only losing Wisconsin by a few thousand votes. These effects cross political and racial lines. Thus, our results suggest a mechanism based around the local economic impact of Trump administration policies rather than a mechanism of political polarization.
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