Abstract
A 1900-2016 time series model predicts former Vice President Joe Biden will win 55.44 percent of the 2020 US presidential popular vote. A change in party control of the U.S. House of Representatives two years before a presidential election has a significant coefficient to explain the popular vote that has not been explored in the past 25 years. A cross-section 50 state Electoral College probit model projects President Trump’s reelection, winning 26 states with 279 electoral votes while Biden receives 259. These popular vote and electoral vote forecasts surely have wide discrepancies. Biden is forecast to win the Electoral College vote under several circumstances. If he wins Wisconsin’s 10 electoral votes, which are predicted for Trump, the candidates could tie with 269 electoral votes and the House of Representatives would select the president. Biden would be elected if he wins Wisconsin and the popular vote in one Congressional district in Nebraska or both districts in Maine. Biden could win with victories in several states where he is forecast to lose close contests. Numbers of COVID-19 virus cases and deaths are not highly correlated with states where Trump is projected to win. The effects of factors such as the President’s health and candidates’ closing campaign behavior cannot be measured. Forecasting US presidential outcomes in the 21st century has become a highly risky activity.
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