Abstract
AbstractA year from the inauguration, four of the top five Democratic 2020 U.S. Presidential election candidates in the polls are in their seventies. Using actuarial data and the history of Presidential assassinations, the top two contenders, Former Vice President Joe Biden and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, have a 24–29% chance of not surviving to the end of a hypothetical first term. The 77 and 78‐year‐old men's chances of dying before the end of a second term as President of the United States are between 46 and 56%.
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