The 2014 ice–jam flood of the Peace-Athabasca Delta: Insights from numerical modelling

Abstract

Major ice jams forming in the lower reaches of Peace River during the spring breakup of the ice cover are the main agents of flooding and replenishment of the Peace–Athabasca Delta ecosystem. Their paucity following construction of the Bennett Dam (1968) and the potential impacts of climate change have raised concerns regarding habitat degradation. The most recent ice-jam flood, which occurred in 2014, was the fifth in the post-regulation period. Relative to previous occasions, the 2014 event was monitored in considerable detail. Unusually complete water level recordings at Delta hydrometric stations, high-water-mark elevations, and aerial observations furnish adequate quantitative evidence for application of numerical models. Ice-jam modelling capability is essential to quantification of flow magnitudes that help replenish the Delta and can facilitate assessment of climate-change impacts on flood frequency and development of adaptation strategies. Following a brief chronology of the 2014 ice breakup in the lower Peace River and presentation of key hydrometric data, the user-friendly, public-domain model HEC-RAS is briefly described and its setup for the lower Peace River outlined. It is then calibrated and validated on two ice jam configurations that occurred on distinct dates. Application of the calibrated model to different ice-jam scenarios indicated that jams of moderate, rather than extreme, length are more effective in flooding of the Delta.