The 2013 Rim Fire: Implications for Predicting Extreme Fire Spread, Pyroconvection, and Smoke Emissions

Abstract

Abstract The 2013 Rim Fire, which burned over 104,000 ha, was one of the most severe fire events in California’s history, in terms of its rapid growth, intensity, overall size, and persistent smoke plume. At least two large pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb) events were observed, allowing smoke particles to extend through the upper troposphere over a large portion of the Pacific Northwest. However, the most extreme fire spread was observed on days without pyroCb activity or significant regional convection. A diverse archive of ground, airborne, and satellite data collected during the Rim Fire provides a unique opportunity to examine the conditions required for both extreme spread events and pyroCb development. Results highlight the importance of upper-level and nocturnal meteorology, as well as the limitations of traditional fire weather indices. The Rim Fire dataset also allows for a detailed examination of conflicting hypotheses surrounding the primary source of moisture during pyroCb development. All pyroCbs were associated with conditions very similar to those that produce dry thunderstorms. The current suite of automated forecasting applications predict only general trends in fire behavior, and specifically do not predict 1) extreme fire spread events and 2) injection of smoke to high altitudes. While these two exceptions are related, analysis of the Rim Fire shows that they are not predicted by the same set of conditions and variables. The combination of numerical weather prediction data and satellite observations exhibits great potential for improving automated regional-scale forecasts of fire behavior and smoke emissions.