The 2012 Flash Drought Threatened US Midwest Agroecosystems

Abstract

In the summer of 2012, the US Midwest, the most productive agricultural region in the world, experienced the most intense and widespread drought on record for the past hundred years. The 2012 drought, characterized as ‘flash drought’, developed in May with a rapid intensification afterwards, and peaked in mid-July. ~76% of crop region and 60% of grassland and pasture regions have been under moderate to severe dry conditions. This study used multiple lines of evidences, i.e., in-situ AmeriFlux measurements, spatial satellite observations, and scaled ecosystem modeling, to provide independent and complementary analysis on the impact of 2012 flash drought on the US Midwest vegetation greenness and photosynthesis carbon uptake. Three datasets consistently showed that 1) phenological activities of all biomes advanced 1–2 weeks earlier in 2012 compared to the other years of 2010-2014; 2) the drought had a more severe impact on agroecosystems (crop and grassland) than on forests; 3) the growth of crop and grassland was suppressed from June with significant reduction of vegetation index, sun-induced fluorescence (SIF) and gross primary production (GPP), and did not recover until the end of growing season. The modeling results showed that regional total GPP in 2012 was the lowest (1.76 Pg C/yr) during 2010–2014, and decreased by 63 Tg C compared with the other-year mean. Agroecosystems, accounting for 84% of regional GPP assimilation, were the most impacted by 2012 drought with total GPP reduction of 9%, 7%, 6%, and 29% for maize, soybean, cropland, and grassland, respectively. The frequency and severity of droughts have been predicted to increase in future. The results imply the importance to investigate the influences of flash droughts on vegetation productivity and terrestrial carbon cycling.