The 2011 Protests: Were They about Democracy?

Abstract

Click to increase image sizeClick to decrease image size Notes 1. Linda Feldmann, “At Last, Obama Addresses Egypt Protests—on YouTube,” The Christian Science Monitor, January 27, 2011, http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/2011/0127/At-last-Obama-addresses-Egypt-protests-on-YouTube. 2. Monty G. Marshall and Keith Jaggers, “Polity IV Project: Political Regime Characteristics and Transitions, 1800–2011,” (College Park, MD: Center for International Development and Conflict Management, University of Maryland, 2012), http://www.systemicpeace.org/polity/polity4.htm. 3. Monty G. Marshall and Keith Jaggers, “Polity IV Project: Political Regime Characteristics and Transitions, 1800–2011,” (College Park, MD: Center for International Development and Conflict Management, University of Maryland, 2012), http://www.systemicpeace.org/polity/polity4.htm. To calculate these figures, democracy is defined, as is standard, as a 5 or higher on the Polity Index. 4. The word “significant” is a statistical term meaning that the results were not produced by chance. In this paper, I use the word “significant” to refer to any statistical findings where the p-value is .05 or lower, as is standard. This p-value indicates that there is a 5 percent or less chance that the results were produced by chance. The tests used to determine the statistical significance varies based on the data. 5. This statement is based on a Chi-squared test—a statistical non-parametric test used to compare observed data with a hypothetical or established distribution that one would expect to obtain according to a specific hypothesis. In this case, the test was based on the difference in a country's Polity Index score between the years 2010 and 2011, and the difference in a country's Polity Index score between elections held in 2011 and the previous election. 6. Dawn Brancati, “Pocketbook Protests: Explaining the Worldwide Rise of Pro-democracy Protests” (Working Paper, Washington University in St. Louis, St. Louis, Missouri, July 2012). In this paper, I test my argument regarding the economy over a larger time period, 2006–2011, using logistic regression models in which I estimate the size of the effect of the economy (using multiple economic indicators) on the rise of pro-democracy protests in countries, while simultaneously controlling for multiple factors influencing the protests. 7. “Egypt Unrest: NGO Offices Raided in Cairo,” BBC News Mideast, December 29, 2011, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-16357795. 8. David M. Herszenhorn and Ellen Barry, “Putin Contends Clinton Incited Unrest Over Vote,” New York Times, December 8, 2011, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/09/world/europe/putin-accuses-clinton-of-instigating-russian-protests.html. 9. ForeignAssistance.gov, Foreign Assistance Data, http://www.foreignassistance.gov/DataView.aspx. The difference is statistically significant according to the Chi-Squared Test. 10. “NGO Law Monitor: Egypt” The International Center for Not-for-Profit Law, October 19, 2012, http://www.icnl.org/research/monitor/egypt.html. 11. Human Rights Watch, 17, no. 8(E), “Egypt: Margins of Repression: State Limits on Nongovernmental Organization Activism,” July 4, 2005, www.hrw.org/reports/2005/egypt0705/egypt0705.pdf. 12. “NGO Law Monitor: Russia” The International Center for Not-for-Profit Law, November 2, 2012, http://www.icnl.org/research/monitor/russia.html#ftn1. 13. Calculated by author using Gallup data. 14. Brancati, “Pocketbook Protests.” 15. “Facebook Becomes Divisive in Bahrain” Voice of America News, August 16, 2011, http://www.voanews.com/content/facebook-becomes-divisive-in-bahrain-127958073/143943.html. 16. “Egyptian Public Opinion Survey,” The International Republican Institute, April 14-27, 2011, http://www.iri.org/sites/default/files/2011%20June%205%20Survey%20of%20Egyptian%20Public%20Opinion,%20April%2014-27,%202011_0.pdf. 17. World Economic Outlook Database, April 2012, http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2012/01/weodata/index.aspx. A t-test is a statistical test used to determine if two samples have the same mean that assumes that the data are drawn from a normal distribution. 18. International Labour Office, Global Employment Trends 2012, (Geneva: 2012), http://www.ilo.org/global/research/global-reports/global-employment-trends/lang--en/index.htm. 19. Masood Ahmed, Dominique Guillaume, and Davide Furceri, “Youth Unemployment in the MENA Region: Determinants and Challenges,” in Addressing the 100 Million Youth Challenge—Perspectives on Youth Employment in the Arab World in 2012, World Economic Forum, International Monetary Fund, June 2012, http://www.imf.org/external/np/vc/2012/061312.htm. 20. In a bivariate logitistic regression model where “pro-democracy protests” is the dependent variable and “dissatisfaction with one's standard of living” is the independent variable, dissatisfaction with one's standard of living significantly increases the likelihood of protests occurring after elections take place in 2011 at the 0.01 level. 21. Calculated by the author using data at http://worldview.gallup.com. 22. Brancati, “Pocketbook Protests.” 23. Pew Research Center, “Prosperity Tops Political Reform: Russia's Weakened Democratic Embrace,'' January 5, 2006, http://www.pewglobal.org/2006/01/05/russias-weakened-democratic-embrace/. 24. Yun-han Chu and others, How East Asians View Democracy, (New York: Columbia University Press, 2008); Latinobar—metero, “Latinobar—metero Report 2009,” Santiago, Chile, 2009, http://www.latinobarometro.org/latino/LATContenidos.jsp. 25. ASDA'A Burson-Marsteller, “Arab Youth Survey 2012,” Dubai, UAE. http://www.arabyouthsurvey.com/english/press_release.php (click on “white paper”) 26. “Egyptian Public Opinion Survey,” The International Republican Institute. 27. “The new middle classes rise up: Marx's revolutionary bourgeoisie finds its voice again,” The Economist, September 3, 2011, http://www.economist.com/node/21528212. 28. Richard Shediac, Samer Bohsali, and Hatem Samman, “The Bedrock of Society: Understanding and Growing the MENA Region's Middle Class,” Booz&Co, Sydney, Australia, 2012. http://www.booz.com/me/home/press_media/management_consulting_press_releases/article/50815585. Additional informationNotes on contributorsDawn BrancatiDawn Brancati is Assistant Professor of Political Science at Washington University in St. Louis