The 1984 Election: The Irrelevance of the Campaign

Abstract

In 1948, pollsters and journalists learned that campaigns mattered. In 1984, the lesson may be that sometimes campaigns may not matter at all. The major question for analysis of this election, therefore, is not what did Ronald Reagan do to insure victory, but why did anyone think Ronald Reagan could lose?This year is an awkward year for analysis for other reasons as well. This was a landslide election; landslides tend to be massive rejections of one candidate or massive affirmations of the winner's policies or performance. This year, the voters were clear in their approval of Ronald Reagan's economic programs. They were less clear in their support for increased spending on defense or in support of the Reagan social agenda. Straightforward analysis of the election provides indications of somewhat increased confidence in government and the prevalence of economic issues dominating the reasons for candidate support. The election seems a mandate for continued economic success, with little concern for how that is achieved. The groups who voted against Ronald Reagan were those who did not think they benefited from administration policies—blacks, Hispanics, and the poor—as well as self-described liberals and the traditional supporters of American liberalism, Jews.