The 16-year periodicity in the winter surface temperature variations in the Antarctic Peninsula region

Oleksandr Evtushevsky,Oleksiy Agapitov,Volodymyr Kravchenko,Asen Grytsai,Gennadi Milinevsky

doi:10.1007/s00382-021-05886-7

Abstract

The aim of this work is a comprehensive study of the 16-year periodicity of winter surface temperature in the Antarctic Peninsula (AP) region, described earlier, and its possible source based on weather station records over the 1952–2019 period making use of the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR) Reference Antarctic Data for Environmental Research (READER) database, as well as Fourier and wavelet analysis methods. It is shown that interdecadal oscillation with a period of about 16 years dominates in the northern AP (Esperanza and Orcadas), which is consistent with previous results. The 16-year periodicity is found to closely correlate with the sea level pressure anomaly in the southwestern Atlantic associated with the zonal wave-3 and the Southern Annular Mode patterns. The correlation maximum in the southwestern Atlantic, having the characteristic features of the anticyclonic circulation, affects the surface temperature in the northern AP through the related structure of the zonal and meridional wind anomalies. This effect is weaker to the south, where the Vernadsky station data do not show a regular interdecadal periodicity. Due to the correlated variability in the wave-3 ridges, the pronounced 16-year periods exist also in the surface temperature of southern Australia–New Zealand region, as well as in the zonal mean sea level pressure at 30°–50° S. The sea surface temperatures are much less involved in the 16-year oscillation suggesting that atmospheric rather than oceanic processes appear to be more important for its occurrence.

Highlights

The quasi-periodic variabilities of surface air temperature on the time scales from 2–8 years up to 20–80 years are well known from the global and regional climate studies based on time series of the climate indices (Park and Mann 2000; Parker et al 2007)
The aim of this work is a comprehensive study of the 16-year periodicity of winter surface temperature in the Antarctic Peninsula (AP) region, described earlier, and its possible source based on weather station records over the 1952–2019 period making use of the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR) Reference Antarctic Data for Environmental Research (READER) database, as well as Fourier and wavelet analysis methods
We examined the spectral features of surface temperature variations in the AP region (Fig. S5) using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)–National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalysis data

Summary

Introduction

The quasi-periodic variabilities of surface air temperature on the time scales from 2–8 years up to 20–80 years are well known from the global and regional climate studies based on time series of the climate indices (Park and Mann 2000; Parker et al 2007). The decadal variability with the periods of 20–70 years is contributed by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) (Mantua et al 1997; Parker et al 2007; Meehl et al 2009; Deser et al 2010; Newman et al 2016). The intermitted interdecadal periods of 10–20 years are present in the regional and global climate variability (Venegas et al 1997; Park and Mann 2000; White and Tourre 2003; Mehta et al 2018). Interference of the climate modes, their relative contributions to the temperature variability can evolve over decades and even cause climate regime shift, in particular in the Pacific Ocean basin (Trenberth et al 2002; Meehl et al 2009; Deser et al 2010; Newman et al 2016; Wang et al 2019), and can influence (enhance or decelerate) the global temperature trends (Lin and Franzke 2015; Dai and Wang 2018)

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Discussion

Conclusion