The 10-year Absolute Risk of Cardiovascular (CV) Events in Northern Iran: a Population Based Study.

Abstract

Background:The present study was conducted to estimate 10-year cardiovascular disease events (CVD) risk using three instruments in northern Iran.Material and methods:Baseline data of 3201 participants 40-79 of a population based cohort which was conducted in Northern Iran were analyzed. Framingham risk score (FRS), World Health Organization (WHO) risk prediction charts and American college of cardiovascular / American heart association (ACC/AHA) tool were applied to assess 10-year CVD events risk. The agreement values between the risk assessment instruments were determined using the kappa statistics.Results:Our study estimated 53.5%of male population aged 40-79 had a 10 –year risk of CVD events≥10% based on ACC/AHA approach, 48.9% based on FRS and 11.8% based on WHO risk charts. A 10 –year risk≥10% was estimated among 20.1% of women using the ACC/AHA approach, 11.9%using FRS and 5.7%using WHO tool. ACC/AHA and Framingham tools had closest agreement in the estimation of 10-year risk≥10% (κ=0.7757) in meanwhile ACC/AHA and WHO approaches displayed highest agreement (κ=0.6123) in women.Conclusion:Different estimations of 10-year risk of CVD event were provided by ACC/AHA, FRS and WHO approaches.