Abstract

Jordan's seemingly successful economic and political reforms have been used to advertise the American vision of societal transformation in the Middle East. The imposition of neo-liberal economic policies removed a key source of welfare for the populace, leaving the regime without a secure base of support. Economic liberalization led to a radical change in the regime's base of support, marginalizing the previous regime backers - the East Bank population - and replacing them with a strengthened military, formerly only part of the regime's support. Initial economic liberalization was a critical juncture when differing outcomes were possible. The 1990s set the institutions and state policies that persisted after these extreme hard times passed. An analytical focus on state social provisioning demonstrates the changed social base of the Jordanian regime and the groups effectively disenfranchised by the new arrangements. The military and security services are the only sector growing in structural adjustment. Alongside decreasing social welfare allocations in general, the military's budgets are increasing and the military diversifying into sub-contracting and new economic enterprises. Militarized liberalization serves as an alternative model for Middle East regimes, one that can furnish the foundation for semi-authoritarianism into the near future. This changing social base of the regime, illuminated through an examination of social welfare, must be recognized when tackling the perennial question of a democratic deficit in the Middle East. Jordan's seemingly successful economic and political reforms have been used to advertise the American vision of societal transformation in the Middle East. 1 However, the imposition of neo-liberal economic policies removed a key source of welfare for the populace, leaving the regime without a secure base of support. Structural adjustment and the imposition of neo-liberal economic reforms were set to dismantle the social provisioning 2 upon which the state of Jordan had been built, without establishing substantive participation as an alternative foundation for the regime. 3 The removal of social policies was not merely a matter of unemployment and decreased buying power, but threatened the very nature of Jordan's regime itself. Prior to its economic reforms in 1989, a social contract in Jordan, similar to most in the Middle East, provided economic goods in return for political quiescence. The state's abrogation in economic reform would logically generate increased political voice, as the populace would no longer support the regime due to economic benefits received. Instead, economic liberalization in Jordan led not to increased political space but to the radical change in the regime's base of support, marginalizing the previous regime backers - the East Bank 4 population - and replacing them with a strengthened military. The pro-American regime has remained a mystery made more puzzling given the reality of poor economic performance and a lack of democracy. The regime's reliance upon military welfare, strengthening the numbers and economic power of the military, aids in explaining the persistence of this semi-authoritarian regime. Hard times can solidify new institutional patterns that either reverse or reinforce old arrangements. 5 When resources for living decline, critical realignments among domestic actors can institutionalize a new coalition for governing which remains in place long after the crisis is over. The harsh economic conditions of the 1990s, depicted here, effectively raised the role of the military by serving as employment and welfare. The narrow group of the military substituted for previous welfare provided to a broad segment of the population. In the atmosphere of general economic crisis, welfare to one section of the population was welcomed. While new economic policies themselves generated substantial protest, the increasing numbers and economic benefits of the military proceeded without objection. …

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