Thailand Integrated Energy Blueprint (TIEB): One Step towards Sustainable Energy Sector

Abstract

In the year end of 2014, the Thailand’s Ministry of Energy launched new five energy strategic plan s, named Thailand Integrated Energy Blueprint (TIEB), to catch up global dynamic factors, from economic, social, and environmental to the fluid aspects of energy industry itself. Six contexts that needs to address for forming sustainable energy sector: 1) Economy’s prospect growth and investors’ confidence, 2) The risk from economic uncertainty and energy price fluctuations, 3) Environmental issues and climate change, 4) Reliance on imported energy and deficit trade balance, 5) Cost of living from energy expense, and 6) Social conflict from lack of data transparency. The scenario analysis together with an energy accounting model, LEAP [1] are used in this paper. Two scenarios, Reference Scenario (REF) and Blueprint Scenario (BLU), are analyzed to illustrate the picture of Thailand’s energy sector from 2014 to 2036. REF underlines a continuation of current government policies (up to 2014). Meanwhile, BLU aims at integrating all plans in TIEB to address the changing and challenging contexts Thailand will encounter in the future while keeping the balance between financial cost and benefit and the potential environmental impacts. Thailand’s energy consumption is forecasted to increase 1.8 times (REF) and 1.5 times (BLU) in 2036 compared to 2013. Net Energy import will continuously increase from 2013 accounting for 48% of all primary energy demand and might reach 84% (REF) within 2036; on the other hand, Blueprint Scenario will decrease the imported energy down to only 72% in 2036 [2].