Textile and clothing exports of developed & developing countries: An analysis under the restrictive trade regime

Abstract

Global textile and clothing (T&C) export restraints had been enforced for nearly 50 years under the Short-Term Arrangement, Long-Term Arrangement, and the Multi-fibre Arrangement. With the formation of the World Trade Organization in 1995, a 10-year quota phasing out transitional period governed by the Agreement on Textile and Clothing was agreed with quota abolition by the end of 2004. This paper analyses the T&C exports from developed and developing countries under the Multi-fibre Arrangement and Agreement on Textile and Clothing from 1990 to 2004 and reveals that there existed a gradual shift of increasing T&C exports by developing countries. The scenarios for the 20 leading global T&C exporters, which assumed 80%–90% of the global export value, were analysed separately by time-series regression modelling during the prescribed period. Results showed that developed countries were seriously affected in the past 15 years and some developing countries would likely become potential global leaders in T&C exports with the abolishment of quotas.