Abstract
Abstract On February 2007, a massive fire in a propane de-asphalting unit in an oil refinery in Texas, USA happened due to liquid propane release from a cracked pipe in a control station injuring four people, damaging extensive equipment, causing significant business interruption, and resulting in more than $50 million losses. The accident was triggered by a natural hazard: freezing of piping at a control station caused an inlet pipe elbow to crack, which in turn, led to the release of high-pressure liquid propane which was rapidly ignited. In addition, there were two near-miss events due to potential domino effects. In fact, the accident could reasonably have resulted in much more severe consequences due to the exposure of large butane storage spheres and chlorine containers, increasing the possibility of a catastrophic domino effect. This paper develops a Natech (natural hazard triggering technological disasters) risk assessment methodology that relies upon Bayesian network capabilities and takes into account the potential Natech domino effects. The methodology is implemented in the intended refinery and mathematically graphically represents the dynamic cause–effect relations between units involved in the scenario, and handles uncertainties among the interactions. In addition, the methodology can provide a risk value for the entire scenario that can be used further for risk-based decision making.
Highlights
On Friday 16 February 2007, workers at Valero Refinery in Sunray, Texas, USA witnessed a highpressure liquid propane release in a propane de-asphalting (PDA) unit
It is further possible that the consequences of such Natech accidents in chemical plants become much more severe due to the escalation of accidents exacerbated by failure or unavailability of safety barriers resulting domino effects
This paper develops a new methodology to assess the risk of Natechs considering their possible domino effects
Summary
On Friday 16 February 2007, workers at Valero Refinery in Sunray, Texas, USA witnessed a highpressure liquid propane release in a propane de-asphalting (PDA) unit. According to the US Chemical Safety Board (CSB) investigation report (CSB, 2008), the propane release likely happened because of a high-pressure piping failure due to freezing of a control station which had not been in service for approximately 15 years. The event at Valero Refinery is just one example of industrial accidents triggered by natural hazards that nowadays are referred to as “Natech” and are considered as an emerging risk which is likely to be exacerbated by ongoing climate change and growing industrialization (Krausmann et al, 2011). It is worth noting that the releases of chemicals triggered by natural hazards are not always because of structural failures They can happen because of the failure of back-up or safety systems that are installed to prevent such accidents in the first place (Cruz and Okada, 2008).
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