Tests of an International Capital Asset Pricing Model with Stocks and Government Bonds and Regime Switching Prices of Risk and Intercepts

Abstract

The paper tests a conditional multivariate International Capital Asset Pricing Model for US, Japanese and European stocks and government bonds, covering the period 1993-2001. Time variation in the prices of market and currency risk is modelled by means of synchronous regime switching. The paper also explores the statistical significance and time variation of asset specific intercept terms, again using synchronous regime switching. The prices of risk are found to be highly time varying. The price of market risk is statistically significant, and the international CAPM risk premia are validated, although currency risk premia are not statistically significant. However, the intercept terms are typically large and significant, implying an overall rejection of the international CAPM, and suggesting that additional, unidentified pricing factors contribute to return expectations.