Testing the Relationship Between Government Expenditure and National Income in Canada, Employing Granger Causality and Cointegration Analysis

Abstract

The relationship between government expenditure and economic growth has been extensively studied both in public finance literature and in the literature dealing with macroeconomic modelling.In public finance the issue dates back to Adolph Wagner (1890) or even before. But Wagner is known to have presented the idea in its modern form. Wagner essentially presented a behavioral statement about the growth of public expenditure which, after some refinements by others, has come to be known as the Wagner's hypothesis (WH). According to this, the growing importance of the state activity and therefore public expenditure is an inevitable feature of a progressive society. In modern literature, the proposition is formulated as follows: as per capita income rises, the share of the public sector increases because:(1) protective and administrative functions of the state expand,(2)state activities pertaining to culture and education expand, and (3) increasing tendency towards monopoly due to technological advancement and increasing returns to scale need to be offset by state actions.The WH is often considered to represent a long‐term relationship which is expected to apply to countries during their early stages of growth and development. The implication of WH is that the causation runs from economic growth to growth in government expenditure. A more important implication of this hypothesis, however, is that government expenditure does not qualify as development finance because it plays no role in economic growth.