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Abstract
Abstract. This paper uses a coupled hydrodynamic agent-based model (HABM) to investigate the effect of direct or indirect warnings in flood incident response. This model uses the LISFLOOD-FP hydrodynamic model and the NetLogo agent-based framework and is applied to the 2005 flood event in Carlisle, UK. The hydrodynamic model provides a realistic simulation of detailed flood dynamics through the event, whilst the agent-based model component enables simulation and analysis of the complex, in-event social response. NetLogo enables alternative probabilistic daily routine and agent choice scenarios for the individuals of Carlisle to be simulated in a coupled fashion with the flood inundation. Specifically, experiments are conducted using a novel “enhanced social modelling component” based on the Bass diffusion model. From the analysis of these simulations, management stress points (predictable or otherwise) can be presented to those responsible for hazard management and post-event recovery. The results within this paper suggest that these stress points can be present, or amplified, due to a lack of preparedness or a lack of phased evacuation measures. Furthermore, the methods outlined here have the potential for application elsewhere to reduce the complexity and improve the effectiveness of flood incident management. The paper demonstrates the influence that emergent properties have on systematic vulnerability and risk from natural hazards in coupled socio-environmental systems.
Highlights
Flood hazard, or flood incident, management is a challenge that incorporates aspects of the natural sciences, the social sciences, and engineering
Instead of directly embedding the hydrodynamic model within the Agent-based models (ABMs), a more pragmatic solution when considering agents whose behaviour cannot affect the flood evolution is to indirectly couple a separate hydrodynamic model with an existing ABM framework. This allows each code to be properly optimised for the task it performs and enables each to be more updated as new methods become available. This is the approach taken here: we develop a coupled hydrodynamic model–agent-based model framework and use this to address two currently unresolved questions relating to flood evacuation warnings
The panels under the graphical user interface (GUI) within these appendices outline the basic controls for the model, whilst the charts on the right show model predictions for potential casualties in relation to populations and pre-preparedness, which is an a priori knowledge of the flood, as previously stated
Summary
Flood incident, management is a challenge that incorporates aspects of the natural sciences (hydrology, ecology, etc.), the social sciences (economics, politics, psychology, culture, etc.), and engineering It is important for the efficiency and efficacy of decision-making processes to recognise that decision-making during floods involves what has been termed “technical complexity” (Correia et al, 1998b). Recent decades have seen strong emphasis being placed on multi-scale, participatory methods for dealing with floods, resulting in a paradigm shift from flood defence to flood risk management (Assaf and Hartford, 2002; Dawson et al, 2011; DEFRA, 2007; IPCC, 2014; Wisner et al, 1994) Such participation means the inclusive involvement of individuals and multiple agencies in the processes of hazard management, policy implementation, and post-event recovery. This emphasis is logical in that it aims to incorporate, as far as possible, the requirements of all those involved in the hazard planning process across a scale hierarchy that passes from government bodies to emergency services and on to the affected individu-
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