Testing the accuracy of the DRNNAGE software for age estimation in a modern Greek sample

Abstract

Estimation of age-at-death from human skeletal remains is fundamental in forensic anthropology as part of the construction of the biological profile of the individual under study. At the same time, skeletal age-at-death estimation in adults is problematic due to the disparity between chronological and biological age, the important inter-individual variability at the rate of skeletal aging, and inherent biases in the available methodologies (e.g., age mimicry). A recent paper proposed a method for skeletal age-at-death estimation based on multiple anatomical traits and machine learning. A software was also created, DRNNAGE, for the easy implementation of this method. The authors of that study supported that their methods have very high repeatability and reproducibility, and the mean absolute error of the age estimation was ~6 years across the entire adult age span, which is particularly high and promising. This paper tests the proposed methodology on a modern documented Greek sample of 219 adult individuals from the Athens Collection, with age-at-death from 19 to 99 years old. The sample was split into males and females as well as into individuals under and over 50 years old. We also divided the sample in 10-year intervals. First, intra- and inter-observer error was estimated in order to assess repeatability and reproducibility of the variables employed for age-at-death estimation. Then, the validity (correct classification performance) of DRNNAGE for each anatomical region individually, as well as all combined, was evaluated on each demographic separately and on the pooled sample. According to the results, some of the variables showed very low repeatability and reproducibility, thus their use should be cautious. The DRNNAGE software showed overall highly accurate age-at-death estimates for individuals older than 50 years, but poor on younger adults, with only exception the cranial sutures, which performed surprisingly well for all age groups. Overall, these results support the importance of cross-validation and the use of population-specific methods in forensic anthropology.