Testing Okun’s Law: Evidence From the Western Balkan Countries

Abstract

Sustainable economic growth and reducing unemployment stood at the heart of each monetary policy. Despite controversial discussions among scholars, Okun’s Law remains a valuable tool for measuring the relationship between economic growth and the unemployment rate. The study covers the six Western Balkan (WB) countries using quarterly unemployment and economic growth data from 2005 to 2019. The results were obtained from the Vector Autoregressive Model, Granger Causality Test, and Impulse Response Function. The findings show that the GDP growth rate has no influence on the unemployment rate in the case of six Western Balkan countries. From the policy perspective, the outcomes of this study provide valuable indications for the policymakers in WB countries on the importance of economic growth in reducing the unemployment rate.