Abstract
This paper presents an updated version of our previous GIS-based method developed for indexing the forest surfaces by their wildfire ignition probability (WIPI) and wildfire spreading capacity (WSCI). The previous study relied on a multi-criteria approach including a variety of factors of social, hydro-meteorological, and geo-physical character of the context. However, this study is challenging the drawbacks of the previous work, by introducing three new criteria regarding the vegetation properties in the area. Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Tree Cover Density (TCD), and land cover type are launched as indicators of fuel properties of the forest being indexed. The materials and software utilized here belongs to different open sources. CORINE Land Cover (CLC), Open Street Map (OSM), TCD via Copernicus high resolution data, and multispectral satellite images via Landsat 8 (Semi-Automatic Classification Plugin- SCP) are utilized as raw materials in a workflow in QGIS software. At this stage, the study area is the territory of Montenegro. Following the inventory stage, the indexing method relies on a normalizing procedure in QGIS and the assignment of weighted impact factor to each criterion via analytical hierarchy process (AHP). The WSCI value is derived as the sum of the products between the normalized class and the respective weighted impact factor of each criterion. Besides the methodological improvements the results of this work deliver tangible outputs in support of forest fire risk reduction in disaster risk management and fire safety agendas.
Highlights
The projected future scenarios of climate change report significant increase of mean temperature values between 3.5 to 7 °C by the end of 21st century in the south-eastern Europe (Lelieveld et al, 2012)
This paper introduces the fuel properties into the wildfire spreading capacity index (WSCI), which originally relies on multi-criteria of social, hydro-meteorological, and geo-physical character of the context
The remarkable difference between the minimum and maximum values is evident while comparing the range of values among the listed criteria
Summary
The projected future scenarios of climate change report significant increase of mean temperature values between 3.5 to 7 °C by the end of 21st century in the south-eastern Europe (Lelieveld et al, 2012). The projection being produced for the period between 2070 and 2099 foresee a decline of 70% in the precipitation records during the hot seasons in some areas of southern Europe. The forest fires are expected to become more frequent and further stretched in time as they are dependent on high temperatures and drought (Adger et al, 2007). The Mediterranean region historically is vulnerable to desertification, due to climate diversity and anthropogenic land consumption (Beguería et al, 2007). Received in revised form: 01 Oct 2020.
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