Abstract
This study compares two methods for testing fertility trends and fertility stalls using Demographic and Health Surveys data. The first method is based on linear regression and uses the equivalence of period and cohort estimates with the same cumulative fertility at age 40, the same number of births, and the same distribution of women by parity. The second method is based on logistic regression. It assumes that the age pattern of fertility is constant over short periods of time. Both methods were applied to fertility trends in several African countries (Ghana, Kenya, Madagascar, Nigeria, Rwanda, Senegal, Tanzania, and Zambia). The two methods were found to predict similar values of cumulative fertility, to produce consistent slopes, to document fertility trends the same way, and to characterize fertility stalls with similar statistical evidence. They can also be used to refute apparent fertility stalls obtained when comparing two point estimates from two successive surveys.
Highlights
Fertility decline from high values typical of natural fertility to near- or below- replacement fertility is a quasiuniversal phenomenon
The demographic approach based on linear regression indicates no change of cumulative fertility by age 40 over the period 1994 to 2002, whereas fertility was declining fast before and after
Results based on the logistic regression confirm these findings with the same predicted values of cumulative fertility over the same periods, same trends, consistent slopes, and similar levels of significance
Summary
Fertility decline from high values typical of natural fertility to near- or below- replacement fertility is a quasiuniversal phenomenon. The fertility transition will not be completed by 2050 in countries that are currently classified as “high fertility, “ most of them in sub-Saharan Africa In these countries, one expects a total fertility rate (TFR) of 2.8 children per woman, whereas elsewhere fertility will be below replacement, with TFR equaling 1.8 by 2050 [1]. E., two or fewer children per woman) is usually continuous and smooth and spans approximately 60 years, or two generations. This transition can occur much faster (over 15 to 25 years) or slower A typical case of fertility stall is that of Argentina, where fertility dropped from 7.0 children per woman in 1895 to 3.2 children per woman in 1947 and stayed at the same level for about 30 years before resuming its path in recent years towards replacement fertility [4]
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