Testing Ecological Theories of Offender Spatial Decision Making Using a Discrete Choice Model.

Shane D Johnson,Lucia Summers

doi:10.1177/0011128714540276

Abstract

Research demonstrates that crime is spatially concentrated. However, most research relies on information about where crimes occur, without reference to where offenders reside. This study examines how the characteristics of neighborhoods and their proximity to offender home locations affect offender spatial decision making. Using a discrete choice model and data for detected incidents of theft from vehicles (TFV), we test predictions from two theoretical perspectives—crime pattern and social disorganization theories. We demonstrate that offenders favor areas that are low in social cohesion and closer to their home, or other age-related activity nodes. For adult offenders, choices also appear to be influenced by how accessible a neighborhood is via the street network. The implications for criminological theory and crime prevention are discussed.

Highlights

Research demonstrates that the spatial distribution of crime is far from uniform and that crime density reflects more than simple variation in target density
The coefficients associated with the logged distances are a little difficult to interpret as one has to think in terms of logged distances, and so for the purposes of illustration, we consider the coefficients for the untransformed data
We examined offender spatial decision making for a high-volume acquisitive crime that has received little attention in the literature, theft from vehicles (TFV)

Summary

Introduction

Research demonstrates that the spatial distribution of crime is far from uniform (for reviews, see Eck & Weisburd, 1995; Weisburd, Bernasco, & Bruinsma, 2009) and that crime density reflects more than simple variation in target density. A number of theories have been proposed to explain observed patterns of offender spatial decision making. We examine spatial patterns of a high-volume acquisitive crime that has received little attention in the academic literature—theft from vehicle (TVF)— and do so using a discrete spatial choice approach (McFadden, 1973). The use of this approach allows us to compare the characteristics of those locations where a sample of offenders chose to commit offenses with those locations that could have been chosen, but were not. The article closes with a discussion of the implications of the findings for criminological understanding and policy

Background

Results

Discussion