Testing criminological theory through causal mediation analysis: Current status and future directions

Abstract

PurposeThe purpose of this paper was three-fold: 1. Present an overview of the core requirements of causal mediation analysis; 2. Evaluate the quantity and quality of current mediation research in criminology and criminal justice; 3. Demonstrate the proper use of causal mediation analysis in testing criminological theory. MethodsCore requirements in conducting causal mediation analysis are examined, followed by a review of mediation research published in the last 10 issues of 8 high-ranking criminology and criminal justice journals. Recommendations are then offered. ResultsFive core requirements (causal order, causal direction, confirmatory model, evaluating significance, and sensitivity testing) for causal mediation analysis are identified. A survey of top journals in criminology and criminal justice revealed that while mediation analysis is commonly found in the literature, most studies violate one or more of the core requirements of the causal mediation method. In addition to exploring simple mediation, multiple mediation and moderation are also discussed. ConclusionsCausal mediation analysis has a great deal to offer the fields of criminology and criminal justice, particularly when it comes to building, testing, and integrating theories. To be effective, however, the method must be properly utilized and implemented.