Testing a Comprehensive Volcanic Risk Assessment of Tenerife by Volcanic Hazard Simulations and Social Vulnerability Analysis

Weiqiang Liu,Yunqiang Liu,Jia Wang,Mingxin Wen,Long Li,Han Li,Lina Yuan,Longqian Chen

doi:10.3390/ijgi9040273

Abstract

Volcanic activity remains highly detrimental to populations, property and activities in the range of its products. In order to reduce the impact of volcanic processes and products, it is critically important to conduct comprehensive volcanic risk assessments on volcanically active areas. This study tests a volcanic risk assessment methodology based on numerical simulations of volcanic hazards and quantitative analysis of social vulnerability in the Spanish island of Tenerife, a well-known tourist destination. We first simulated the most likely volcanic hazards in the two eruptive scenarios using the Volcanic Risk Information System (VORIS) tool and then evaluated the vulnerability using a total of 19 socio-economic indicators within the Vulnerability Scoping Diagram (VSD) framework by combining the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and the entropy method. Our results show good agreement with previous assessments. In two eruptive scenarios, the north and northwest of the island were more exposed to volcanic hazards, and the east registered the highest vulnerability. Overall, the northern municipalities showed the highest volcanic risk in two scenarios. Our test indicates that disaster risk varies greatly across the island, and that risk reduction strategies should be prioritized on the north areas. While refinements to the model will produce more accurate results, the outputs will still be beneficial to the local authorities when designing policies for volcanic risk reduction policies in Tenerife. This study tests a comprehensive volcanic risk assessment for Tenerife, but it also provides a framework that is applicable to other regions threatened by volcanic hazards.

Highlights

More than 500 million people worldwide live in the proximity of active volcanoes, and this number is expected to keep increasing due to rapid population growth and urban expansion [1]
A variety of volcanic hazard assessment tools have been developed during the past few decades, many of which are specific to a single hazard type, e.g., Q-LavHA [33] for lava flows, Tephra 2 [34,35] and Hazmap [36] for tephra, the Energy Cone [37,38], and the Energy Line [39] models for pyroclastic density currents (PDCs)
The spatial distribution of simulated ash fall and PDC at Teide-Pico Viejo volcanic complex was in good agreement with that of Martí et al [10], as we both selected the Sub-Plinian eruption for simulation

Summary

Introduction

More than 500 million people worldwide live in the proximity of active volcanoes, and this number is expected to keep increasing due to rapid population growth and urban expansion [1]. Volcanic risk assessment is essential in volcanically active areas, those with large transient populations such as tourists, which might not be aware of hazards and emergency procedures. Volcanic islands, such as the Canaries, are especially vulnerable due to isolation, limited space and economic dependency on tourism. Volcanic hazard and risk maps are key tools for volcanic emergency management, the former illustrating hazards at any particular location and the latter characterizing the spatial variation of vulnerability of exposed elements [6]. A volcanic hazard assessment typically involves the estimation of the probability of future eruptions as well as simulation of future eruptive scenarios. Volcanic risk assessment requires comprehensive consideration of volcanic hazards and vulnerability [11,12]

Objectives

Methods

Findings

Discussion

Conclusion