Abstract
BackgroundDespite the fact that testicular cancer presents good prognosis, wide variations in mortality rates have been reported internationally. In Brazil, mortality trends and estimates have not been fully assessed. The objective of the study presented herein is to analyze the mortality trends for testicular cancer in Brazil in the period 2001–2015 and calculate mortality predictions for the period 2016–2030.MethodsThis is a population-based ecological study that utilized information of the Mortality Information System, on testicular cancer-related deaths in Brazil. Mortality trends were analyzed by Joinpoint regression, and Nordpred was utilized for the calculation of predictions.ResultsThe mortality rate for men, standardized to the world population, varied between 0.36/100,000 for the year 2001, to 0.41/100,000 for the year 2015. There was an increasing trend for Brazil (APC = 1.3% CI95% 0.6; 2.0) and the Southeast region (APC = 1.5% CI95%0.2; 2.7). When analyzing Brazilian data for the period 2016–2030, predictions indicate 2888 deaths due to testicular cancer, which corresponds to a 26.6% change when compared to the 2011–2015 period. This change is mostly explained by an increase in the risk of death (14.2%) when compared with modifications in the demographic structure (12.4%).ConclusionsTesticular cancer mortality in Brazil presents increasing trends, and until 2030 these rates continue to increase.
Highlights
Despite the fact that testicular cancer presents good prognosis, wide variations in mortality rates have been reported internationally
The objective of this study was to analyze the temporal trends of testicular cancer mortality in Brazil and its geographic regions between 2001 and 2015 and estimate mortality predictions for the period 2016–2030
When analyzing the historical series of mortality rates, increasing trends were detected for Brazil (APC of 1.3%) and the Southeastern region (APC of 1.5%) (p < 0.05) with stability for the remaining geographic regions, with no joinpoints (Table 1)
Summary
Despite the fact that testicular cancer presents good prognosis, wide variations in mortality rates have been reported internationally. The age standardized world incidence rate for testicular cancer by world standard population was 1.7/100,000 men, in 2018 [1]. In 2018, world estimates reported the incidence of 71,105 new cases and approximately 9507 deaths, of which only 2131 occurred in the most developed regions of the world [1]. Testicular cancer presents a strong genetic component in its development, and is 4 to 5 times more prevalent in Causasians than in Afrodescendant populations. It usually affects young men, with the following risk factors: cryptorchidism, infertility, family history (heritability varies between 37 and 49%) and associated with the Klinefelter syndrome [2]
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