Test selection for a mass screeening program

Abstract

AbstractPeriodic mass screening is the scheduled application of a test to all members of a population to provide early detection of a randomly occurring defect or disease. This paper considers periodic mass screening with particular reference to the imperfect capacity of the test to detect an existing defect and the associated problem of selecting the kind of test to use. Alternative kinds of tests differ with respect to their reliability characteristics and their cost per application.Two kinds of imperfect test reliability are considered. In the first case, the probability that the test will detect an existing defect is constant over all values of elapsed time since the incidence of the defect. In the second case, the test will detect the defect if, and only if, the lapsed time since incidence exceeds a critical threshold T which characterizes the test.The cost of delayed detection is an arbitrary increasing function (the “disutility function”) of the duration of the delay. Expressions for the long‐run expected disutility per unit time are derived for the above two cases along with results concerning the best choice of type of test (where the decision rules make reference to characteristics of the disutility function).