Test Međunarodnog Fišerovog efekta - istraživanje iz Srbije i Evropske unije

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to explore the International Fisher Effect (IFE) between Serbia and European Union (EU) in period between 2004 and 2015. The authors in this paper explore the IFE by applying regression analysis. They were used historical annual data for exchange rates, real interest rate and inflation, in this research. Like a home country and foreign country the authors were used each of these areas (Serbia and EU) like interchangeably and track the trail of the effect. Explore was based on the time series of observed annual data in period between 2004 and 2015. The authors were used the data of authorized central banks from databases: the World Bank, the National Bank of Serbia and the European Central Bank. Regression analysis was performed using a software package SPSS 20. The contribution of this paper is reflected in the obtained results.The results show that a 1% increase in the nominal interest rate differential, on average, lead to approximately a 0.3% offsetting change in the exchange rate in both cases (Serbia-home EU-foreign and EU-home Serbia-foreign).The coefficients of determination R2 are very low, also in both cases. Only 3.3% of the annual changes in the RSD/EUR exchange rate and 4.2% of the annual changes in the EUR/RSD exchange rate can be explained by the nominal interest differentials. Therefore, about 96% of the annual changes in the exchange rates depend on other factors.