Terrorist Threat in the Former Soviet Union in the Face of ISIL’s Defeat in Iraq and Syria

Abstract

The article attempts to identify how methods, strategies and primary activities of Islamist extremist and terrorist organizations have recently evolved. According to the author, this subject has not received adequate coverage in Russian political science. The author uses ISIL as an example of such groups and seeks to prove his thesis, according to which, after being defeated in Iraq and Syria, the organization was forced to search for areas of refuge in order to survive and carry on its terrorist activities. As was expected, ISIL chose Afghanistan as their hideout territory with the purpose of launching terrorist acts against Russia and the countries of Central Asia. For this purpose, the so-called “Caliphate”, or “Vilayet Khorasan”, was created: a branch of ISIL, which operates on the territories of Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iran, as well as in Central Asia. The article also highlights the similarities between the Central Asian states and the Russian Federation as potential targets of terrorist attacks. After analyzing the main ideological and political guidelines and practical actions of ISIL, as well as several other terrorist groups, the author comes to the conclusion that the organizations in question have been experiencing crisis, but, at the same time, are characterized by vitality, especially with regard to ideology and religious values.