Terrorist networks and the lethality of attacks: an illustrative agent based model on evolutionary principles

Paul Ormerod

doi:10.1186/2190-8532-1-16

Abstract

A data base developed from the Memorial Institute for the Prevention of Terrorism’s (MIPT) Terrorism Knowledge Base for the years 1998–2005 was provided to participants in the workshop. The distribution of fatalities in terrorist attacks is, like many outcomes of human social and economic processes, heavily right-skewed. We propose an agent based model to analyse this, and to enable generalisations to be made from the historical data set. The model is inspired by modelling developments in cultural evolutionary theory. We argue that a more appropriate ‘null’ model of behaviour in the social sciences is on based upon the principle of copying, rather than the economic assumption of rationality in the standard social science model.

Highlights

Asal and Rethemeyer [1] report an econometric analysis of a data base developed from the Memorial Institute for the Prevention of Terrorism’s (MIPT) Terrorism Knowledge Base
This paper considers a potential generalisation of the econometric approach using the methodology of agent based modelling (ABM)
The model is developed from the concept of genetic evolution, which is based on the principles of copying and mutation

Summary

Introduction

This paper considers a potential generalisation of the econometric approach using the methodology of agent based modelling (ABM). For example, what is the potential for small, less connected groups to acquire the ability to develop the capacity to carry out highly effective attacks?

Results

Conclusion