Terrorism, Spoiling, and the Resolution of Civil Wars

Abstract

Civil war combatants use terrorism frequently, yet we understand little about terrorism’s effects on war resolution. It is assumed that the primary combatants to a war hold a veto over resolution, but less attention has been devoted to whether the use of terrorism can derail peace agreements. We contend that even terrorism, a generally low intensity form of violence, can make civil war peace processes less likely to conclude in a peaceful, durable resolution. Using a new and large geographically coded database of terrorism in civil wars, we find that the use of terrorism can spoil peace processes by prolonging the duration of a war hastening the time until recurrence. Our argument and results add to the literature on civil wars by explicating the process linking terrorism to war duration and outcome. More generally, the results underscore the importance of investigating different varieties of political violence during civil conflict.