Terrorism in the year 2020: Examining the ideational, functional and geopolitical trends that will shape terrorism in the twenty-first century

Abstract

The intelligence failures associated with the 9/11 attacks in the United States have emphasized the challenges government leaders face when trying to predict specific terrorist attacks. A complementary approach focuses on strategic forecasting, which prioritizes assessment of and response to longer-term trends that may shape the evolution of terrorism. Viewed from a historical perspective, terrorism has been influenced by three key drivers: ideational and ideological trends, functional developments, and geopolitical tensions and transitions. In this paper I follow these three drivers into the future as predicted by the National Intelligence Council (NIC)'s 2004 report, Mapping the Global Future, which identifies key trends that will shape the security environment to the year 2020. I highlight the trends that correspond to historical drivers of terrorism, and conclude that the enabling environment for terrorism will probably be robust and enduring well into the twenty-first century.