Abstract
Since the turn of the last century, nationalistic political parties have been gaining support in Europe. Over the same period, terror attacks have increased. Using data from European Social Surveys (ESS), we examine the effects of terror attacks involving at least one fatality on attitudes towards immigrants and government institutions. Comparing within-country responses to the ESS shortly before and after fatal terror attacks, we find little evidence of a shift in attitudes against immigrants. Consistent with “rally-around-the flag” effects documented by political scientists, ESS respondents living in the region that was attacked tend to express more trust in parliament and more satisfaction with the national government in the post- as compared to the pre-attack period. Similarly, we find evidence that particularly salient terror attacks can produce nationwide rally-around-the-flag effects. Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.
Highlights
Terror attacks in Western Europe have been trending upwards since the mid-2000s, with a notable spike in the years 2014 and 2015 (Figure 1)
This study provides the first comprehensive, multi-country examination of the effects of terror attacks on political opinions and attitudes
Previous studies examining the relationship between terror attacks and similar outcomes have focused on a single event or country and, as a consequence, it is not clear whether their results are generalizable
Summary
Terror attacks in Western Europe have been trending upwards since the mid-2000s, with a notable spike in the years 2014 and 2015 (Figure 1). There were, for instance, an average of 70 terror attacks per year in Western Europe during the period 2004-2007, and an average of 239 attacks per year during the period 2015-2018. As terror attacks have become more frequent, nationalistic political parties have gained support. Many observers have argued that the recent surge in terrorism has increased anti-immigrant sentiment and reduced support among voters for traditional political parties and government institutions (Smale and Castle 2016; Fekete 2018; Roth 2018; Turak 2018; Neumann 2019), but this argument has not yet been tested using a clean and credible identification strategy
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