Territorial Conflicts and Japanese Attitudes Towards East Asian Countries: Natural Experiments with Foreigners' Landings on Disputed Islands

Abstract

Japan disputes the sovereignty of two islands: Senkaku/Diaoyu with China and Takeshima/Dokdo with South Korea. These disputes have triggered political performances. In August 2012, Chinese activists landed on Senkaku/Diaoyu, and South Korean politicians landed on Takeshima/Dokdo. The group threat theory suggests that these events constitute threats to Japanese citizens, which lead to negative attitudes towards these countries. The theory also expects personal variations in the reactions to the threats, and the empirical findings of the theory predict an improvement in the worsened attitudes immediately after the event. Drawing on a Japanese social survey that was conducted every month for the two years during which these landing events occurred, I tested the effect of the events on Japanese attitudes towards China and South Korea in a natural experimental framework. The results show that the events negatively impacted Japanese attitudes towards both countries. However, contrary to the expectations of the group threat theory, individual variations (i.e., socioeconomic status, media exposure, and political orientation) in the responses to the events are not supported. Additionally, the attitudes do not return to preevent levels for one year. The contradictions between previous studies and this study potentially originate from the importance of the territories.