Terrestrial vegetation redistribution and carbon balance under climate change

Wolfgang Lucht,Sibyll Schaphoff,Tim Erbrecht,Ursula Heyder,Wolfgang Cramer

doi:10.1186/1750-0680-1-6

Abstract

BackgroundDynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) compute the terrestrial carbon balance as well as the transient spatial distribution of vegetation. We study two scenarios of moderate and strong climate change (2.9 K and 5.3 K temperature increase over present) to investigate the spatial redistribution of major vegetation types and their carbon balance in the year 2100.ResultsThe world's land vegetation will be more deciduous than at present, and contain about 125 billion tons of additional carbon. While a recession of the boreal forest is simulated in some areas, along with a general expansion to the north, we do not observe a reported collapse of the central Amazonian rain forest. Rather, a decrease of biomass and a change of vegetation type occurs in its northeastern part. The ability of the terrestrial biosphere to sequester carbon from the atmosphere declines strongly in the second half of the 21st century.ConclusionClimate change will cause widespread shifts in the distribution of major vegetation functional types on all continents by the year 2100.

Highlights

Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) compute the terrestrial carbon balance as well as the transient spatial distribution of vegetation
At the southern edge of the boreal forest, where it borders the steppe in central Asia and Canada, a recession of forest cover is observed in several areas due to increasing drought
In the stronger climate change scenario, the boreal forest collapses or changes into an open woodland in southern eastern Siberia, central western Siberia, and to the southwest of Hudson Bay in Canada due to increased mortality caused by heat stress

Summary

Introduction

Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) compute the terrestrial carbon balance as well as the transient spatial distribution of vegetation. We study two scenarios of moderate and strong climate change (2.9 K and 5.3 K temperature increase over present) to investigate the spatial redistribution of major vegetation types and their carbon balance in the year 2100. Land ecosystems contain large amounts of carbon which could be released as a consequence of major changes – they may accelerate or slow down climate change substantially [3,4,5] (accelerate, e.g. due to increasing carbon emissions from organic soils, wildfires or forest die-back, or slow down, e.g. through increased vegetation growth and storage in dry or cold soils). Precipitation, light (page number not for citation purposes)

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