Terms of Trade and Domestic Distribution: Export Led Growth with Abundant Labor Supply

Abstract

A general equilibrium macro model is constructed to explore effects of export-led growth policies on the terms of trade and the domestic distribution of a developing region with abundant labour. This region, the South, trades with another, the North; they have different technologies and supplies of factors. It is shown that under certain conditions of dualism in the production of goods and of abundant labour supply in the South, an increase in the volume of exports from the South may bring about at sustained worsening of the South's terms of trade with the North even if this increase in exports is due to a positive shift in demand from the North. This change in the terms of trade is accompanied by a sustained loss of purchasing power of wages within the South. These results take plane in a Walrassian stable market. When technologies are more homogeneous and labour less abundant, the results are reversed: increased exports will take place together with improvements in terms of trade and a tendency to equalise factor prices between the regions. The results argue for coordination of domestic and international policies with special attention to technologies and labour markets.