Termination of the 2018 Florida red tide event: A tracer model perspective

Abstract

The 2018 Karenia brevis harmful algal bloom experienced along the west coast of Florida was the worst red tide occurrence there since 2005. Cell concentrations peaked in early fall of 2018, lessened in winter, and disappeared early in 2019. Here we examine the termination of this red tide event by using hindcast simulations of the West Florida Coastal Ocean Model, a numerical ocean circulation model that downscales from the deep Gulf of Mexico, across the continental shelf and into the estuaries. The underlying hypothesis is that without an offshore source of K. brevis cells, a nearshore bloom may quickly dissipate under the influence of a persistent upwelling circulation. To test this hypothesis, we used a passive tracer (without consideration of biological growth or decay) in the model to virtually indicate K. brevis cells. The tracer, inputted along the central West Florida coast where highest bloom concentrations were observed, was subsequently transported southward along the coast and offshore, significantly reducing the tracer concentrations over the three-month-long experimental duration, as was observed for the actual K. brevis cell concentrations. Whereas modeled tracer concentrations decreased over most of the West Florida coast, relatively higher concentrations remained just south of Sanibel Island, trapped there by the sharp bend in the coastline. Longer residence time for this area has important K. brevis implications. Lake Okeechobee nutrient flux through the Caloosahatchee River was thought to contribute to red tide in this region, and while these inputs may be a factor, a persistent upwelling circulation may also play a contributing role.